Risk Radar

Early warning for company and sector distress

The Risk Radar provides the crucial leading indicators needed to detect financial or operational stress before it surfaces in lagging quarterly reports or public news. We use real-time motion signals to identify and score potential vulnerabilities at the company and sector level across our covered regions.

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Pre-emptive stress detection

The Risk Radar is designed to identify “motion in the wrong direction.” It continuously monitors high-frequency signals that often precede financial instability, allowing for pre-emptive action in underwriting, investment, and supply chain management.

Company-level distress signals

We combine registry, procurement, and digital activity data to form a granular view of organizational vulnerability:

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Workforce decline proxies:

Analyze sustained drops in job postings or hiring velocity as an indicator of freezing or shedding payroll, a classic early sign of financial stress.

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Procurement losses:

Track consistent failure to secure public tenders or a significant drop in procurement activity, which signals a loss of guaranteed revenue streams, particularly in B2G and B2B sectors.

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Leadership instability:

Monitor rapid changes in C-suite or board members using national registry APIs, which often correlate with internal strategic misalignment or financial pressure.

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Legal notices and public events:

Ingest and classify legal, bankruptcy, or insolvency filings and high-frequency adverse media alerts to flag immediate risk events.

Sector-level risk measurement

The Radar aggregates company-level signals to provide a macro-view of systemic risk within specific industries.

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Sector stress scoring:

Quantify the percentage of key firms within a sector exhibiting high-contraction scores, tender losses, or workforce decline to calculate an aggregated sector risk rating.

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Supply-chain vulnerability:

Use trade flow data from UN Comtrade and Eurostat Comext to identify sectors reliant on increasingly volatile import/export corridors or materials.

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Intervention flagging:

Identify sectors showing high macro-level risk that may be candidates for government intervention or policy shifts, particularly useful for public sector analysts.

API-first risk integration

The Risk Radar is engineered to seamlessly integrate with your existing financial models, enhancing traditional risk assessment.

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Augment underwriting models:

Integrate our Contraction Scores and Risk Markers to refine SME and enterprise credit risk assessments, improving default prediction accuracy.

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Alerting and monitoring:

Configure triggers within the platform to receive real-time alerts when a portfolio company or key vendor surpasses a predefined risk threshold.

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Time-series validation:

Access the historical Risk Radar data through the Time-Series Studio to backtest and validate the predictive power of our motion signals against historical financial distress events.