Demand Signals
Macro indicators to understand category-level consumer demand
The Demand Signals module provides a high-level, predictive view of consumer demand shifts without relying on slow, static market surveys or granular, SKU-level retail data. We leverage macro-economic motion signals, such as trade flows, retail expansion, and logistics activity, to deliver early, category-level demand forecasts for the Baltics, Nordics, and Africa.
Proxies for retail & consumer activity
We use specific economic signals that act as validated proxies for category-level demand:
Retail expansion & contraction:
Track the movement of retail companies via the Company Trajectory Engine. New branch registrations or retail staffing changes provide a leading indicator of regional confidence and future service/product demand.
Logistics and supply-chain shifts:
Monitor the activity and expansion of logistics and warehousing companies, using them as a direct proxy for the overall volume of goods expected to move through a market. Increased activity signals future fulfillment demand.
Category trade flows:
Utilize highly granular import/export data from UN Comtrade and Eurostat Comext. Shifts in the trade volume of specific product categories (defined by HS codes) are a direct, non-lagging indicator of demand and inventory commitment.
From raw data to predictive demand
The Demand Signals engine processes raw flow data into clean, aggregated, and actionable forecasts:
HS code aggregation:
Trade data is aggregated and classified into logical consumer categories, making high-volume, global data relevant for specific demand modeling.
Correlation modeling:
We run proprietary models to establish and track the correlation between the activity signals (logistics activity, retail expansion) and actual market outcomes, ensuring the demand proxies remain predictive.
Time-series ready:
All historical and real-time demand proxy data is normalized and structured for immediate use in internal demand forecasting models.
Key applications for demand signals
This module provides critical intelligence for teams requiring validated, forward-looking consumer insights:
FMCG and CPG strategy
Inform category strategy and supply chain investment by identifying demand acceleration or decline across target markets.
Retail site selection
Validate new store openings or regional focus by cross-referencing company-level expansion with macro-level demand signals.
Resource planning
Use the trade and logistics proxies for accurate inventory and capacity planning, reducing risk of understocking or overstocking.
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